Professional Outlook, Inc. Recruiting Specialists

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in December to 94.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in November and a 0.6 percent increase in October. This month’s data inaugurates a number of major changes to the components and calculation of the LEI [see box below].

“Revised figures show that adding the new Leading Credit Indexâ„¢, in conjunction with other changes, makes the LEI a more accurate predictor of U.S. business cycles since 1990,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. “The improvement is especially pronounced before and during the 2008-2009 recession, and during the current expansion. In December, the LEI for the U.S. increased again. The gain was widespread among the leading indicators, suggesting economic conditions should improve in early 2012. However, the LEI gain in December was held back by negative contributions from the new Leading Credit Index – which indicates weak credit and financial conditions — and from consumer expectations for business and economic conditions.”

Added Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The CEI and other recent data reflect an economy that ended 2011 on a positive note and the LEI provides some reason for cautious optimism in the­ first half of 2012. This somewhat positive outlook for a strengthening domestic economy would seem to be at odds with a global economy that is losing some steam. Looking ahead, the big question remains whether cooling conditions elsewhere will limit domestic growth or, conversely, growth in the U.S. will lend some economic support to the rest of the globe.”

The following summary was released by PwC (Price Waterhouse Cooper), which conducts quarterly surveys of  60 senior executives of large, multinational U.S. industrial manufacturing companies about their current business performance, the state of the economy and their expectations for growth over the next 12 months. This survey summarizes the results for Q4 2011 and was conducted from October 26 through January 11, 2012.

U.S. industrial manufacturers expect continued domestic and international growth in 2012, although forecasts have fallen below 2011 actual growth rates, according to the findings of the Q4 2011 Manufacturing Barometer released today by PwC US.  While uncertainty still prevails and own-company revenue expectations have moderated, optimism about the worldwide economy rose in the fourth quarter of 2011, including a notable improvement in sentiment regarding prospects for the U.S., as compared to an all-time low in domestic sentiment in the third quarter of 2011.  In addition, U.S. industrial manufacturers continue to forecast increased investment spending in the year ahead, including major outlays in operational spending.  Plans for merger and acquisition (M&A)activity also increased, and there was significant emphasis on expansion into new markets.  (more…)

The other day I had the pleasure of interviewing Ed Gordon, a futurist specializing in career and technical education. Author of the “Winning the Global Talent Showdown” (Berrett-Koehler, 2009), Gordon is currently working on two thought-provoking ebooks, “The Talent Hunters” and “The Job Hunters,” both expected later in 2012. “The Talent Hunters” deals with the myth that the US does not have to worry about talent. In the past, we brought talent in or built factories in Germany, India, or China. The truth is there are workforce shortages in the US and in many other countries. Previously people from China and India who came to the US for advanced degrees stayed on to accept positions here. Now, they are returning home due to attractive business opportunities in their native countries.

According to Gordon’s analysis of data from the Conference Board, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Society for Human Resources Management, in the US alone, there are 5 million vacant jobs, including a million jobs that employers have given up on filling—either because they sought too specialized skills or because they were unwilling to pay for the talent. Most of the vacant positions are in the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) areas and at least half require good literacy and numeracy skills—clearly a problem in the US and elsewhere. Most of these positions also require the candidates to have completed certificate or apprenticeship programs or to have had advanced on-the-job training. We will need huge numbers of workers to replace the many reluctantly retiring Baby Boomers. The problem, according to Gordon is we are caught between two periods: “The Information Age” and “The Cyber-Mental Age.” (more…)

No one knows exactly how many people the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has decided are “no longer looking for work.” That is important, because the unemployment rate is calculated, based on the number of people actually looking for work. As we have said so many times, we have millions of people who are perfectly trained and qualified to handle jobs that no longer exist.

In spite of these challenges, there are “Pockets of Prosperity,” as we discussed previously. Not too long ago, Deloitte and Touche reported that there were 5,000 open jobs in the manufacturing sector. Having industrial skills makes you very employable today. In a recent study issued by the Society of Human Resource Management (SHRM), 68 percent of employers said that they experienced a shortage of “qualified new hires” to replace people retiring from the skilled trades (electricians, carpenters, welders). There are also increases in industrial hiring in logistics, supply-chain management, and plant management. (more…)

Index Increases Nearly 10 Points

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved in November, increased further in December. The Index now stands at 64.5 (1985=100), up from 55.2 in November. The Present Situation Index increased to 46.7 from 38.3. The Expectations Index rose to 76.4 from 66.4.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was December 14.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “After two months of considerable gains, the Consumer Confidence Index is now back to levels seen last spring (April 2011, 66.0). Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions improved again.  Looking ahead, consumers are more optimistic that business conditions, employment prospects, and their financial situations will continue to get better. While consumers are ending the year in a somewhat more upbeat mood, it is too soon to tell if this is a rebound from earlier declines or a sustainable shift in attitudes.”  (more…)

Every year at about this time, The Herman Group issues its annual forecast. If it seems like much of this forecast is similar to last year, you are right. Due to prolonged economic challenges, employers are facing very similar conditions to last year. Also again, this year, we offer you our full forecast (longer than our usual alert) for the coming year. Enjoy.

1. Recruiting will intensify among smaller employers. While large companies are bracing for the rippling impact of the European debt crisis, we will see the small and medium-size companies adding staff. Many companies will continue their reluctance to add staff, until they have a sense for the outcome of the elections. Worldwide, we will see areas like growth areas like Southeast Asia, certain parts of South America (notably Brazil and Chile), and the Middle East pirating talent away from other areas. Employers attempting to recruit experienced people will find their challenges increasing.

2. In the US, unemployment will continue to remain relatively high. Domestically, we expect unemployment to remain over 7.5 percent for the coming year for most of the country. China‚s unemployment will grow, too, as employers turn away from inconsistent quality and/or find lower-cost source markets for low-skilled labor. The continuing challenge for employers worldwide is that many of the unemployed do not have the skills they are looking for.

3. More communities will wake up to the critical need for workforce development. More communities will become aware that they will simply not grow economically without having an available skilled workforce—with the skill sets their prospects seek.

4. Metrics, metrics, metrics. Looking for efficiencies everywhere, more employers will embrace technology to manage processes and keep track of talent. Companies providing software to employers will see their businesses grow. Employers will face the challenges of training their people in these new systems.

5. Companies will take greater advantage of social networks. They will not only use it in recruiting, marketing, and public relations, but also training and development, and even in succession planning. Large companies will capitalize on their own internal social networking sites to “keep it in the family.”

6. Growth levels will again vary by region. The US will have continued slow growth, as will some most areas of Europe. Others will show modest increases. The big winners in job growth and profits will be Brazil, India, and China. The lingering repercussions of the European debt crisis and the Great Recession in the US (including high levels of unemployment and depressed housing prices) will hamper expansion.

7. A growing number of unemployed people will become consultants and personal coaches. The personal and professional services industries are burgeoning. More companies will “rent” the talent they need for the time they need it. Individuals will increasingly seek the services of life-and executive coaches to help them realize their full potential.

8. Re-engineering will continue. As we forecasted in our book “Lean & Meaningful: A New Culture for Corporate America,” companies, particularly the larger ones will continue to reduce staff and hire others in an ongoing attempt to optimize productivity and profit. The drop in employee engagement will not affect this drive for efficiency, until that decrease begins to affect the bottom line. Wise employers will engage their employees in finding these efficiencies.

9. Far too many employers worldwide will ignore the roles of engagement and retention in their bottom line profitability. Though employers will have higher employee turnover and greater difficulty in recruiting, too few will take action to meet this challenge. By necessity once again, employers will be forced to look at the real drivers of employee retention, which may not be what is reflected in their surveys.

10. In the US, the escalating regulatory environment will cause employers to need employment lawyers more than ever. With the continuing increase in regulations affecting Human Resources, smart employers will have no choice but to collaborate with their employment lawyers early on to avoid problems after the fact. The largest employers have been working with their trusted partners for years.

Just as loyalty towards green products and services has fallen victim to the continuing economic woes around the world, so has customer loyalty—both internal and external to organizations.

In a surprising report recently released by Right Management, 84 percent of the respondents to an online poll said they “plan to look for a new position in 2012.” That number is almost double the number found by Randstad in their recent poll. Only seven percent of these “internal customers” said a move was “unlikely” or that they expected to stay in their current positions.

On the other end of the customer spectrum, in a recent survey of service providers, 66 percent of respondents believed that their (external) customers are less loyal today than they were two years ago. If service providers want to attract new subscribers in saturated markets, they will need to implement loyalty strategies to combat competitors’ aggressive offers. Due to this market saturation and increasing competition, 82 percent of service providers said that customer loyalty programs would be “very important” or “important” over the next five years to their company’s strategy. (more…)

Several recent studies have reinforced our belief—that employee loyalty is declining—around the world. The most recent evidence comes from the well-respected consultancy Mercer in their 2011 “What’s Working”survey—released just last week.

This statistically valid research, conducted with nearly 30,000 employees shows that the percentage of workers seriously considering leaving their organizations has risen significantly, since the last time the survey was conducted. Mercer conducted the previous surveys between 2003 and 2006, prior to the economic downturn.

In many of the 17 geographic markets, the increase in workers considering leaving is 10 percentage points or more. In the United States, the increase was 9 points, from 23 percent in 2005 to 32 percent in 2010. (Not all markets were polled in each survey.)

According to Mindy Fox, a senior partner at Mercer, “. . .lackluster engagement is no longer just a US phenomenon.” In the face of companies looking to drive productivity and efficiencies, this kind of widespread apathy and high turnover can be seriously detrimental to an organization’s business performance, especially given the current economic environment. (more…)

In its recently released Energy Industry Update, ScottMadden, Inc., one of North America’s leading energy consulting firms, highlights the continuing challenges faced by the energy and utilities industries as world economic growth remains slow coming out of the “Great Recession.”

This semi-annual publication features our view of recent significant events and emerging trends in the energy industry. In this issue, ScottMadden observes that aging plants, shifting demand patterns, continued growth of renewable resources, and costly environmental regulations are driving substantial investment needs.

“Our utility clients are seeing some developments that can help moderate rate increases, such as relatively inexpensive natural gas,” said Brad Kitchens, president and CEO of ScottMadden. “But the energy sector still faces a new round of investment requirements and will need to find ways to fund this build-out.” (more…)

If you’re a grimacing grinch or a holiday humbug you’re not alone. Some 35 million Americans actually dread having to be nice during the holidays, according to a recent poll by Consumer Reports.

The survey of holiday jeers, conducted by the Consumer Reports National Research Center asked a nationally representative sample of Americans what, if anything they dread from a list of holiday activities.  Apparently it’s not all peppermint and presents at this joyous time of year— a whopping 90 percent noted at least one thing they dreaded about the winter holidays.

“For all the chatter about nostalgia, family fun and gift giving this time of year, many people don’t like too much of a good thing,” said Tod Marks, senior editor at Consumer Reports.

Among the list of (additional) jeers that frosted folks the most: waiting in lines and crowds (68 percent), putting on weight (37 percent), getting into debt (37 percent), and holiday shopping (28 Percent).

To read the rest of this story or for more information on the latest holiday jeers poll data from Consumer Reports visit www.ConsumerReports.org or click on this link:

http://news.consumerreports.org/money/2011/11/americans-top-holiday-dreads-being-nice-makes-the-list.html